Perpetual and liquidation risk
Leveraged positions can be liquidated rapidly. Displayed liquidation prices are estimates; funding, fees, oracle changes, slippage and keeper timing can move the realized outcome. Remaining collateral may be consumed by losses and liquidation fees.
A fully funded 1× perpetual is not an outcome token. It can continuously pay or receive funding and may be closed if funding exhausts available equity.
Funding, utilization and liquidity
The crowded side may pay funding. Protocol LP utilization fees can vary with inventory and available liquidity. Thin books or stressed LP inventory can cause partial fills, greater price impact or no execution.
Stock-market and oracle state
The protocol trades a computed 0–1 stock-relative value, not shares of NVDA or AMD. Regular hours, after-hours sessions, halts, stale feeds, split adjustments, disputed reports and feed divergence can force lower leverage, reduce-only mode or an emergency close policy.
Earn and withdrawal risk
Earn shares can lose value from market-making PnL, inventory exposure, oracle error, liquidation shortfall, smart-contract failure or external LP loss. First-loss capital and risk caps reduce some risks but do not guarantee principal.
Withdrawals use a FIFO queue with a minimum delay and may execute partially while capital is in use. Migrating a Uniswap NFT is effectively irreversible: later redemption returns USDG, not the original NFT.
Smart-contract and administration risk
Contracts may contain defects despite testing. Upgradeable proxies and administrative controls create implementation, governance and key-compromise risk. The current admin is a disclosed wallet rather than a multisig.
Outcome-token risk
Advanced spot outcome tokens are separate fully collateralized claims. They have no funding or liquidation, but remain exposed to contract, liquidity, oracle and market-definition risk. Owning a claim does not confer stock ownership, dividends or shareholder rights.